The great alienator

Why doesn’t the public accept the science? This is the so-called Hard Question in the science-communication sciences.

The paradigm is straightforward enough:

A scientist and a non-scientist meet. This is a teaching moment: the non-scientist is ‘exposed’ to science. We logically expect this to translate (or ‘convert’) to an increase in his or her acceptance of the science.

But it doesn’t always happen.

We’ve studied hundreds of unsuccessful exposures—’failures to convert’ [FTC]—and asked participants what went wrong with the rapport between scientist and citizen.

The single biggest rapport-breaker?

Arrogance.

Time and time again, scientists find the public arrogant.

Unless and until ordinary people show some humility and deference, the scientists will have little interest in helping them.

Nowhere is arrogance more of a turn-off than in the climate debate. I wish I had a dollar for every time someone complained, “Just because they’re climate scientists, it doesn’t mean they’re smarter than us.”

Yes it does. And until the general public gets over its self-importance, the scientists are just going to keep switching off.

An Anatomy of Denialism, Part 2

As you must remember from Part 1 (unless you’ve repressed it because you don’t like the lifestyle implications):

  • Denialists make up virtually the whole retired-white-male half of the Earth’s population.
  • To a very close approximation, everyone on the left is a believer, while everyone on the right isn’t. What better proof could there be that the climate issue is really about politics—not science—for deniers?
  • Our Conservative cousins are understandably, if not forgivably, less-than-eager to acknowledge any problem that can only be solved by abolishing national sovereignty, erecting an omnipotent United Nations and legislating the very act of organic metabolism.
  • Anti-scientists are continually pressing for a scientific debate.
  • That’s because they can’t debate the political reality: that climate change necessitates a new world order. They’re left with no choice but to attack the weakest link—the science—instead.
  • On “our side” we have credible sources like RealClimate, SkepticalScience and Deltoid.
  • What do deniers have? Blog science.
  • Unlike the mainstream half of the populace, deniers only trust experts they believe.
  • That’s why they don’t think (or know) the Earth has more and more heat all the time; it’s us; and it’s bad.
  • They say it’s paused, it’s the sun, it’s not the first time, it’s land use, or it’s not bad.
  • As you can see, they use short words.
  • A lot, *laugh out loud!* [Source: John Cook.] Which makes them sound like kids—just dumb kids.

Let’s resume our tireless struggle to understand—and maybe, just maybe, with time and luck, begin to see the basic humanity of—our enemies in the fiendishly-complex question of the likely thermal responses of the planet’s fluid envelope to a myriad of natural and supernatural signals.


McCright, A.M. & Dunlap, R.E. (2011). Cool dudes: The denial of cli­mate change among con­ser­vative white males in the United States. Global Environmental Change 21 (4) 1163–1172.

Gratuitous questioning

There’s nothing wrong with asking questions. Science welcomes questions!

But you have to ask them in good faith. This means, for example, you can’t demand information which has already been debunked.

Unfortunately, when a denier asks something, their faith tends to be questionable. Search long enough and you’ll often find their question has already been refuted somewhere on the Internet!

Nuspeak

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Climate Myth of the Day: Scientists seek consensus

“Skeptics” believe the darnedest things. One of their favorite mythconceptions is that scientists are under pressure to agree.

Far from it. Science is all about overturning the consensus; there’s no glory in conformity. If the prevailing view never changed then all you’d have is “settled science,” and scientists have a word for that kind of thing: “religion.”

That’s why everyone who works in (say) climate science is driven by one goal: to be the next Michael Mann, the researcher who changed everything we thought we knew about the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the rest of the last 1000 years of climatic change. By proving the then-consensus view wrong, Mann won instant respect and credibility throughout the scientific world.

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Lewandowsky Safety Update

Ten days ago, UWA’s Prof. Carmen Lawrence confirmed the worst fears of many in the climate community: psychologist and CN contributor Stephan Lewandowsky was still being hounded. He’d relocated his family from Australia to England; he’d even agreed to take down a paper deriding his persecutors as paranoid conspiracy theorists, even though everybody knew it was true; but the plotters weren’t giving up so easily.

It seems the situation hasn’t got any better. Steve is “still being pursued by climate deniers,” according to an email we received today.

He says he’s been unable to get a good look at his pursuers, who switch cars every day.

Why is it so hard to have a panicked, hysterical conversation about climate change?

As a science communicator part of my job is to take the emotional temperature of the climate community—something that can be measured on well-known, well-validated anxiety scales.

I’m often surprised by the disconnect between scientists and the public.

To say the scientists were worried would be old news—and an understatement. When we first asked the climate community in the mid-90s, most researchers said they were already Worried or Very Worried, with fewer than 30% claiming to be Not Concerned about climate change.

But then, in a Nature editorial in 2010, Professor Paul Ehrlich mentioned that “[e]veryone is scared shitless.” Such a comment might have been dismissed as hyperbole coming from anyone else, but we all knew Ehrlich’s reputation. You don’t become the world’s most respected ecologist if you’re in the habit of being wrong about shit.

So we sampled the scientists again. And guess what?

The “Unconcerned” [denialist] researchers now made up a tiny 3%.

Meanwhile, the entire mainstream had become Worried or higher.

22% of climate scientists today are Very Worried, 28% are Scared Shitless and a whopping 15% are now Shitting Themselves. In this top category the median scientist has involuntarily shat him- or herself eleven times in the last 30 days.

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Yes, But Can We Afford One?

An article by Wall Street Journal employee Pete du Pont, in which he argues that the public “could use an honest debate” on climate change, has just come out in the WSJ (where else?).

We cannot risk taking du Pont’s advice. What he forgets, or deliberately fails to tell his readers, is that debates take at least an hour. They can easily break the two-hour mark, depending on the format.

But we need to act on climate now.

Not in a couple of hours. Not next month. Not in an hour. Now.

Du Pont’s motivation, then, is clearly to stall for time. Seen in this light, the call for “debate” is almost understandable (if not forgivable). Hey: if you can’t deny it, delay it!

Look for such tactics to become increasingly central to the denialist MO this year as the science itself becomes less and less controversial. Remember, people who oppose science are, at bottom, neophobes with an irrational addiction to the status quo. And when change terrifies you you’ll do anything to slow it down—no matter how foolish you make yourself sound in the process. (This is why my New Year’s resolution was to say “science refusard” less and “climate retardard” more.) If the climate-change wars have proven anything it’s the visceral conservativeness, the blind fear of change, of the left half of the human bell curve.

Of course, my critique of du Pont’s desperate call for a debate doesn’t even take into account the considerable time it would take to find a venue and arrange security (hardly a trivial task when the topic is as “heated” as this one). But as if these flaws weren’t fatal enough, du Pont also ignores the problem of recruiting participants. Real climate scientists are notoriously reluctant to debate. Even if they agreed to do so—and as any scientist on earth will tell you, getting scientists to agree on anything is like herding cats—they would then need to select their opponents. It could easily take weeks of negotiations just to nominate three or four skeptics whose presence on the same stage wouldn’t offend the sensibilities, or tarnish the good name, of anyone on the Affirmative team.

And as climate scientists have been telling us since the late 80s, that’s time we simply don’t have.

When will we finally believe them?

Denialism equals delayalism equals debatalism, folks.

Cool, But Not Pariah Cool

Jonathan Jones, Professor of Physics at Oxford, has been meta-shunned; snubbed by the ostrarchy; excluded from the excluditi.

The Internet can be such an Amish place.

This comment abides by our community standards

Personal child-erection-themed abuse? Really? All in a day’s non-work for the vigilant editors at Al Graun, apparently.

They say you can tell as much about an online publication from the comments they don’t delete as the ones they do. I’d probably go further: I reckon you can tell even more from the comments they leave intact—because, you know, you can actually read them.

In Climate Science, the Past is a Foreign Country

Do you remember what life was like 25 years ago?

Probably not—at least not if you work in medicine or have spent any time in hospital (in virtually any rôle) since 1989. The world of health care is an unrecognizably different place than it was a mere quarter-century ago.

In a good way.

Since then, medical science has given us the completed Human Genome Project, the first cancer-preventative vaccine (for HPV), HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors [‘statins’], an awareness of the therapeutic and prognostic significance of omega-3 fatty acid levels, stem-cell therapies for adrenoleukodystrophy and other conditions, functional MRI, self-expanding stents made of nitinol and next-generation materials, minimally-invasive robotic surgery, the bio-informatics revolution, lifesaving genetically-engineered drugs like tissue plasminogen activator, gene-targeted therapies like Herceptin and Gleevec (for breast cancer, chronic myeloid leukemia and GIST), the multi-lumen tubing which is now a mainstay on high-dependency wards, highly active anti-retroviral therapy [HAART] and the once-a-day HIV pill that can slow down and even arrest progression to AIDS, entire families of antidepressants and noötropics…

The list goes on. And remember, that’s just medical advances.

But it got me thinking about an even bigger question:

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An Anatomy of Denialism, Part 1

Look around you. According to climate anthropologists, 1 in every 2 people you see* is a denialist.

That’s almost half of all people.

But which half? And how can you be sure it’s not you?

You can’t.

There’s only one way to know, scientifically, whether you’re a denialist: by reading the following post, in which I reveal the telltale characteristics of denialism.


*How many are deniers are truly unique, and how many are just aliases of a small handful of individuals—created, funded and coached by vested-interest lobbies to give an exaggerated appearance of disagreement—is a fascinating question. But it’s been explored elsewhere by researchers like John Mashey and Steve Lewandowsky, who pioneered the fields of climate paranoia and conspiracy ideation. So we’ll leave it aside for now.


Demographics

Given that denialists make up 50% of the world’s people, they can obviously be found in all shapes and sizes.

Notwithstanding this, deniers are almost always white males aged 60+.

Politics

Wait a minute, I hear you ask: wasn’t this supposed to be a scientific debate? Is it really any of our business how the other side votes?

Yes.

Those of us who accept the science are now openly, if belatedly, explaining that for us the issue has always been more political than scientific.

So it stands to reason that the people who most adamantly oppose all our ideas feel the same way. (As in any other subject, projection is an incredibly powerful heuristic that almost never leads to bad assumptions.) Continue reading